← Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals
Water GenbuTier 1
at Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals
decks
2
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-6-1
overall winrate
45.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.8%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
54.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1218
· median 1218
· range 1185–1250
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1183
Q3 1380
1543
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.0% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 69.7% | +11.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Fire Suited | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ciel | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.7 |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
